Tuesday, September 05, 2006

Rambling: Hurricane (?) Season

I love it when God shows that He's smarter than us humans. For instance, this year's forecast for the hurricane season in the Atlantic said that we would have an above normal season. We arrogantly assumed we knew how the weather was supposed to work, and that this whole global warming thing was fueling more significant hurricanes. (At least, that's what the media was quick to tout. Funny how they haven't said much about the fact that this failed forecast proves the connection tenuous at best.) The forecast in April called for 17 named storms in the Atlantic (we've had 6 so far, and the peak of hurricane season is past already) and 9 hurricanes (we've had 1 so far, Hurricane Ernesto, and it wasn't a very impressive hurricane). What happened? Well, a lot of factors together probably have hindered hurricane formation. In my opinion, God is showing us who's really in charge of the weather here. It's not us. It's Him. We think that we can understand how things work, but in reality, we can just make educated guesses based off of how things typically work. In the end, God can intervene and make the weather behave however He wants. Read on for some details about the revisions made to the forecasts with time.

At the end of May, the forecasts were revised, but no changes were made. At the beginning of August, a new update was issued. This update predicted 13 named storms after August 1, 7 of which would be hurricanes. So far, this forecast has not been too impressive. There have been 3 named storms so far. That leaves the next 2 months to produce ten, or five storms a month. Unless tropical storm intensity picks up considerably, that forecast is also going to be wrong. Thus, the forecasters tried one more time. Now, they are calling for 8 more named storms after September 1 (instead of the 10 that they would have needed before). To be honest, I think this forecast will be a bust, too. There will be fewer than 8 storms. How many fewer? I don't know, but I wouldn't be surprised if we had only 5 more named storms this season. We simply do not understand enough about how God made the world, and we can never anticipate when He will intervene.
Above all, these failed forecasts should put to rest once and for all the myth that global warming is fueling stronger hurricanes. There just isn't enough evidence to support it.

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