Over the past three or four days, I have been watching the weather forecast, reading the National Weather Service (NWS) forecast discussions, and looking at a bit of model data, trying to get a feel for the strong winter storm that is closing in on NE Kansas. To make things challenging, the forecast models are generally not the most reliable at predicting these types of storms. If the forecast model miscalculates the storm track by even 40 miles (which is only a few percent error), then a heavy snow event turns into a rain/freezing rain event. And it's that sort of challenge that confronts forecasters, both the official ones at the NWS and T.V. stations and amateurs like myself. Given that tomorrow is Christmas Eve, this storm threatens to put the kibosh on many Christmas Eve services. We'll have to wait until tomorrow to be certain of what the storm does.
I'll try to post updates over the next day or so with my own thoughts, as well as the NWS's. Right now, the big story from the NWS is the location of the heavy snow axis. According to the latest forecast discussion, the forecasted location of the heavy snow axis has moved farther to the east. This shift has occurred due to the forecast models shifting the low pressure center farther to the east, putting the Topeka and Lawrence areas under the gun for heavier snow. If this forecast verifies, NE Kansas will definitely see a white Christmas. Whether we can get anywhere on this white Christmas to celebrate it with our families is another story.
For my part, I glanced at one forecast model, and I do see some cause for concern. If the model forecast I examined verifies, Topeka is looking at 2 inches of snow by noon on Thursday, with an additional 4 inches possible through Christmas Day. That means a total of 6 inches of snow in and around the Capital City. Whether we indeed get this much snow remains to be seen. The last winter storm that plowed through here looked like it was going to dump on Topeka, only to shift farther west and leave us in rain for most of the day.
So, I'm going to take a "wait and see" attitude on this one, although I also am going to be ready to adjust my travel plans should this particular forecast verify.
Regardless of the weather, merry Christmas to you. May you enjoy a blessed time of celebrating the birth of our Lord and Savior, Jesus Christ!
UPDATE (6:50 pm) -- The latest model runs, along with the latest official NWS forecast, seem to indicate that there will be 5-6" of snow in and around Topeka by the end of the storm on Friday. It doesn't appear that the snow will start in NE Kansas until after noon. Freezing rain/sleet should hit for a while before that. Still, it looks like the storm will be a bit delayed compared to the last run. We'll see what happens when the 00Z models (models based on 00Z or 6:00 pm Central Time observations) come out in a couple of hours.
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