Republican Caucuses

Something rare in the history of Kansas happened today: the Republican party held a caucus. This is the first caucus in the past 20 years, which also makes it the first caucus I am old enough to participate in. Since I have never been to a caucus (I never went to the ones in Iowa while I was in college), I thought I'd take the short trip over to the Expocenter to take part in this unique process.
The crowds were large. Heritage Hall was nearly full when I arrived at 9:15 am, so I went over to the overflow room. It was already almost full. By 9:30, it was standing-room-only, and the back half of the meeting room was opened up in order to accommodate the extra participants. I would estimate that somewhere between 750-1000 took part in the caucus here in Shawnee County. What the totals will be in other counties, I don't know.
The experience was fascinating, though, far more interesting than a sterile primary. People freely handed out campaign literature and proudly held up signs for their chosen candidate. Speakers officially representing Ron Paul and John McCain spoke, followed by a line of people unofficially speaking in favor of Mike Huckabee. Then, everyone voted. The speeches, though, made the event worthwhile, and I'll summarize my observations below.
Not surprisingly, each candidate's representatives stuck to one of several main themes, trying to play to the given audience. Ron Paul's representative emphasized that Rep. Paul never raised taxes, that he should be the choice because he was different, and that he was pro-life. The first and last points will go over well with the generally conservative Kansas Republicans. McCain's representative emphasized his electability, his foreign policy experience, and his right-to-life stance. Huckabee's supporters took two different tracks. The first couple emphasized his religious convictions, while the remainder basically touted his support of the FAIR tax, a national sales tax.

Best speech: Senator Sam Brownback (no surprise) urged people to vote for John McCain because of his electability. Senator Brownback is a gifted speaker, and he also had the best quip of the event when he said, tongue in cheek, "There is no perfect presidential candidate in the race. I've already dropped out." Still, I agree with Senator Brownback that McCain may be the only candidate in the field that stands a chance in the general election. Moderate voters are not going to look favorably on Huckabee's conservative values, and I fear that the Democratic party's mudslinging/propoganda machine would have a heyday making Huckabee look like a backwards, far-right extremist.

Worst speech: One of the speakers in favor of Huckabee said that he was voting for him because "Huckabee was a man of God" and that "Huckabee is God's man for the job." A speech like that is going to do more harm than good both to Hucakbee's cause and to the cause of Christ. In fact, as this speaker made his first statement, one of the guys behind me whispered to the man next to him, "Can't stand those Christians--they're so intolerant." And really, the guy speaking did make a fool of himself. He came off sounding unintelligent and unthinking as well as clueless about politics and about the candidate he claimed to support. He gave no logical reasons that Huckabee would best make the next President other than that he shared this man's religious beliefs. I wonder what the speaker would have thought of Jimmy Carter?

Least well-received speech: A nun speaking in favor of John McCain went on an emotional tirade against current U.S. policy of arresting and fining illegal immigrants. "We're a nation of immigrants," she argued (ignoring the fact that most of our ancestors came here legally). "Who's going to pick our vegetables and work all the low-paying jobs?" she demanded, presenting the classic false dilemma argument that "illegal-immigrant rights" supporters use far too frequently. The effect of illegal immigrants on the U.S. economy is far more complex than the taking of the low-end jobs that no Americans want, a claim that I dispute as being valid, anyway. It's not a simple either-or proposition. I could sense that the majority of the crowd wanted to shout her down but out of respect, thankfully, did not do so.

Prediction for Kansas: It's too close to call. I think that John McCain, bolstered by the moderate voting blocks in the KC Metro area could edge out Mike Huckabee, especially if areas like Manhattan/Junction City/Fort Riley value McCain's foreign policy ability over Huckabee's more conservative credentials. That could change, however, if Sedgewick County (Wichita) goes for Huckabee in incredibly large numbers. Senator Brownback's support of McCain may not have swayed enough Kansans away from Huckabee. My sense is that many Kansas Republicans simply do not like McCain's moderate stances on several issues, especially illegal immigration.

Prediction for National Primary Results: McCain will win the Republican nomination. He has a solid lead, and while many conservative states will back Huckabee, the moderate states will swing McCain's direction (along with a few conservative ones) to give him the overall nomination. Honestly, I hope McCain does get it. He is the best hope of keeping the Democrats out of the White House, a fate that could have tragic consequences for America. My reasons for saying that, however, belong to another post on another day.