Unfortunately, something that hasn't happened since the '70s is poised to happen again in the coming year: inflation during an economic slowdown. Obviously, inflation is generally bad if it occurs in a significant way. For example, during 2000 and 2001, Turkey experienced (at times) nearly 100% inflation on the Turkish Lira. Within a year, money that was worth $2 sank to being worth $1. That was great for us foreign visitors; it was lousy for the Turks, who over the course of a year, found their paychecks effectively cut in half.
While the inflation that is facing the US right now isn't expected to be nearly that bad, inflation still has the same effect on the wages of workers here in the US. Generally, the Federal Reserve acts to keep inflation under control by raising interest rates, as it did in the 1970s and 1980s. However, news reports today seem to suggest that the Fed won't be raising rates and instead lowering them in the hopes of staving off a recession. My question is why is the Fed so concerned about avoiding a recession. I guess that I'm not well-enough schooled in Economics to understand. It seems to me that recessions are an inevitable part of the economic cycle, while inflation can be avoided (or at least controlled) more easily. Shouldn't the Fed be more worried about controlling inflation than preventing a recession? If one of you out there understands this whole issue well, I welcome your comments.
Wednesday, February 27, 2008
Sunday, February 24, 2008
Worst...Drive...Ever
So, I went down to watch our boys' and girls' basketball teams play in the KCAA Tournament yesterday. I thought for sure that the road trip back would not be that bad. Snow was in the forecast for Wichita, but based off of what I saw, it looked like the snow would be not much farther north than that.
It turns out that I (and just about every other meteorologist) was wrong on this storm system. It moved farther north than expected, dropping snow almost to Topeka. That made the trip back home far more of an adventure than I would have liked. What should have been a 2-hour drive back from Wichita turned into a 3-1/2-hour-long, white-knuckle adventure of trying to stay on the road. The turnpike was completely snow-packed from Wichita all the way to the Shawnee County line (and a bit beyond). Most of the trip, I was only able to travel at 40 mph at best. Passing proved impossible, since there was only one "lane" that wasn't under at least an inch of packed snow. I don't think I would have set out from Wichita at all if the road condition hotline had accurately described the road condition of the turnpike. Instead, though, it said that the road conditions from Emporia northeastward was "Normal Seasonal Conditions," a statement that proved to be totally incorrect. I'm not sure where the hotline got its information from, but it was totally incorrect in this case. Oh, well. I made it home safely, praise God! Now, I can get set for a new week. Soccer is just around the corner.
It turns out that I (and just about every other meteorologist) was wrong on this storm system. It moved farther north than expected, dropping snow almost to Topeka. That made the trip back home far more of an adventure than I would have liked. What should have been a 2-hour drive back from Wichita turned into a 3-1/2-hour-long, white-knuckle adventure of trying to stay on the road. The turnpike was completely snow-packed from Wichita all the way to the Shawnee County line (and a bit beyond). Most of the trip, I was only able to travel at 40 mph at best. Passing proved impossible, since there was only one "lane" that wasn't under at least an inch of packed snow. I don't think I would have set out from Wichita at all if the road condition hotline had accurately described the road condition of the turnpike. Instead, though, it said that the road conditions from Emporia northeastward was "Normal Seasonal Conditions," a statement that proved to be totally incorrect. I'm not sure where the hotline got its information from, but it was totally incorrect in this case. Oh, well. I made it home safely, praise God! Now, I can get set for a new week. Soccer is just around the corner.
Wednesday, February 20, 2008
Total Lunar Eclipse
Tonight at about 9:00, weather-permitting, look towards the east because the last total lunar eclipse for the next few years is going to be happening, and it will be visible throughout most of the country. The moon should look reddish-brown, quite a different look from the usual full moon. Let's hope that the clouds stay away long enough for this wonderful display of nature to be visible. I'm looking forward to it!
Monday, February 18, 2008
Writer's Block, Pt. IV
Catching cold #4 this winter has brought about a horrible side-effect: I have writer's block.
It's been amazing to me, though, how many students I've had out this year with colds and/or the flu. It's been several years since I've seen this many students gone, and I can't ever remember a year when I've still had quite a few students gone even this late in the year. If I can't get over this cold soon, next week's start to soccer season could be really tough.
It's been amazing to me, though, how many students I've had out this year with colds and/or the flu. It's been several years since I've seen this many students gone, and I can't ever remember a year when I've still had quite a few students gone even this late in the year. If I can't get over this cold soon, next week's start to soccer season could be really tough.
Wednesday, February 13, 2008
Saturday, February 09, 2008
Republican Caucuses
Something rare in the history of Kansas happened today: the Republican party held a caucus. This is the first caucus in the past 20 years, which also makes it the first caucus I am old enough to participate in. Since I have never been to a caucus (I never went to the ones in Iowa while I was in college), I thought I'd take the short trip over to the Expocenter to take part in this unique process.
The crowds were large. Heritage Hall was nearly full when I arrived at 9:15 am, so I went over to the overflow room. It was already almost full. By 9:30, it was standing-room-only, and the back half of the meeting room was opened up in order to accommodate the extra participants. I would estimate that somewhere between 750-1000 took part in the caucus here in Shawnee County. What the totals will be in other counties, I don't know.
The experience was fascinating, though, far more interesting than a sterile primary. People freely handed out campaign literature and proudly held up signs for their chosen candidate. Speakers officially representing Ron Paul and John McCain spoke, followed by a line of people unofficially speaking in favor of Mike Huckabee. Then, everyone voted. The speeches, though, made the event worthwhile, and I'll summarize my observations below.
Not surprisingly, each candidate's representatives stuck to one of several main themes, trying to play to the given audience. Ron Paul's representative emphasized that Rep. Paul never raised taxes, that he should be the choice because he was different, and that he was pro-life. The first and last points will go over well with the generally conservative Kansas Republicans. McCain's representative emphasized his electability, his foreign policy experience, and his right-to-life stance. Huckabee's supporters took two different tracks. The first couple emphasized his religious convictions, while the remainder basically touted his support of the FAIR tax, a national sales tax.
Best speech: Senator Sam Brownback (no surprise) urged people to vote for John McCain because of his electability. Senator Brownback is a gifted speaker, and he also had the best quip of the event when he said, tongue in cheek, "There is no perfect presidential candidate in the race. I've already dropped out." Still, I agree with Senator Brownback that McCain may be the only candidate in the field that stands a chance in the general election. Moderate voters are not going to look favorably on Huckabee's conservative values, and I fear that the Democratic party's mudslinging/propoganda machine would have a heyday making Huckabee look like a backwards, far-right extremist.
Worst speech: One of the speakers in favor of Huckabee said that he was voting for him because "Huckabee was a man of God" and that "Huckabee is God's man for the job." A speech like that is going to do more harm than good both to Hucakbee's cause and to the cause of Christ. In fact, as this speaker made his first statement, one of the guys behind me whispered to the man next to him, "Can't stand those Christians--they're so intolerant." And really, the guy speaking did make a fool of himself. He came off sounding unintelligent and unthinking as well as clueless about politics and about the candidate he claimed to support. He gave no logical reasons that Huckabee would best make the next President other than that he shared this man's religious beliefs. I wonder what the speaker would have thought of Jimmy Carter?
Least well-received speech: A nun speaking in favor of John McCain went on an emotional tirade against current U.S. policy of arresting and fining illegal immigrants. "We're a nation of immigrants," she argued (ignoring the fact that most of our ancestors came here legally). "Who's going to pick our vegetables and work all the low-paying jobs?" she demanded, presenting the classic false dilemma argument that "illegal-immigrant rights" supporters use far too frequently. The effect of illegal immigrants on the U.S. economy is far more complex than the taking of the low-end jobs that no Americans want, a claim that I dispute as being valid, anyway. It's not a simple either-or proposition. I could sense that the majority of the crowd wanted to shout her down but out of respect, thankfully, did not do so.
Prediction for Kansas: It's too close to call. I think that John McCain, bolstered by the moderate voting blocks in the KC Metro area could edge out Mike Huckabee, especially if areas like Manhattan/Junction City/Fort Riley value McCain's foreign policy ability over Huckabee's more conservative credentials. That could change, however, if Sedgewick County (Wichita) goes for Huckabee in incredibly large numbers. Senator Brownback's support of McCain may not have swayed enough Kansans away from Huckabee. My sense is that many Kansas Republicans simply do not like McCain's moderate stances on several issues, especially illegal immigration.
Prediction for National Primary Results: McCain will win the Republican nomination. He has a solid lead, and while many conservative states will back Huckabee, the moderate states will swing McCain's direction (along with a few conservative ones) to give him the overall nomination. Honestly, I hope McCain does get it. He is the best hope of keeping the Democrats out of the White House, a fate that could have tragic consequences for America. My reasons for saying that, however, belong to another post on another day.
The crowds were large. Heritage Hall was nearly full when I arrived at 9:15 am, so I went over to the overflow room. It was already almost full. By 9:30, it was standing-room-only, and the back half of the meeting room was opened up in order to accommodate the extra participants. I would estimate that somewhere between 750-1000 took part in the caucus here in Shawnee County. What the totals will be in other counties, I don't know.
The experience was fascinating, though, far more interesting than a sterile primary. People freely handed out campaign literature and proudly held up signs for their chosen candidate. Speakers officially representing Ron Paul and John McCain spoke, followed by a line of people unofficially speaking in favor of Mike Huckabee. Then, everyone voted. The speeches, though, made the event worthwhile, and I'll summarize my observations below.
Not surprisingly, each candidate's representatives stuck to one of several main themes, trying to play to the given audience. Ron Paul's representative emphasized that Rep. Paul never raised taxes, that he should be the choice because he was different, and that he was pro-life. The first and last points will go over well with the generally conservative Kansas Republicans. McCain's representative emphasized his electability, his foreign policy experience, and his right-to-life stance. Huckabee's supporters took two different tracks. The first couple emphasized his religious convictions, while the remainder basically touted his support of the FAIR tax, a national sales tax.
Best speech: Senator Sam Brownback (no surprise) urged people to vote for John McCain because of his electability. Senator Brownback is a gifted speaker, and he also had the best quip of the event when he said, tongue in cheek, "There is no perfect presidential candidate in the race. I've already dropped out." Still, I agree with Senator Brownback that McCain may be the only candidate in the field that stands a chance in the general election. Moderate voters are not going to look favorably on Huckabee's conservative values, and I fear that the Democratic party's mudslinging/propoganda machine would have a heyday making Huckabee look like a backwards, far-right extremist.
Worst speech: One of the speakers in favor of Huckabee said that he was voting for him because "Huckabee was a man of God" and that "Huckabee is God's man for the job." A speech like that is going to do more harm than good both to Hucakbee's cause and to the cause of Christ. In fact, as this speaker made his first statement, one of the guys behind me whispered to the man next to him, "Can't stand those Christians--they're so intolerant." And really, the guy speaking did make a fool of himself. He came off sounding unintelligent and unthinking as well as clueless about politics and about the candidate he claimed to support. He gave no logical reasons that Huckabee would best make the next President other than that he shared this man's religious beliefs. I wonder what the speaker would have thought of Jimmy Carter?
Least well-received speech: A nun speaking in favor of John McCain went on an emotional tirade against current U.S. policy of arresting and fining illegal immigrants. "We're a nation of immigrants," she argued (ignoring the fact that most of our ancestors came here legally). "Who's going to pick our vegetables and work all the low-paying jobs?" she demanded, presenting the classic false dilemma argument that "illegal-immigrant rights" supporters use far too frequently. The effect of illegal immigrants on the U.S. economy is far more complex than the taking of the low-end jobs that no Americans want, a claim that I dispute as being valid, anyway. It's not a simple either-or proposition. I could sense that the majority of the crowd wanted to shout her down but out of respect, thankfully, did not do so.
Prediction for Kansas: It's too close to call. I think that John McCain, bolstered by the moderate voting blocks in the KC Metro area could edge out Mike Huckabee, especially if areas like Manhattan/Junction City/Fort Riley value McCain's foreign policy ability over Huckabee's more conservative credentials. That could change, however, if Sedgewick County (Wichita) goes for Huckabee in incredibly large numbers. Senator Brownback's support of McCain may not have swayed enough Kansans away from Huckabee. My sense is that many Kansas Republicans simply do not like McCain's moderate stances on several issues, especially illegal immigration.
Prediction for National Primary Results: McCain will win the Republican nomination. He has a solid lead, and while many conservative states will back Huckabee, the moderate states will swing McCain's direction (along with a few conservative ones) to give him the overall nomination. Honestly, I hope McCain does get it. He is the best hope of keeping the Democrats out of the White House, a fate that could have tragic consequences for America. My reasons for saying that, however, belong to another post on another day.
Wednesday, February 06, 2008
Snowfall in Topeka
So, my forecast of 3-6 inches turned out to be a little off. I had 8.5 inches of snow here at my house in the heart of Topeka. This winter has turned out to be one of the snowiest in recent memory. I certainly am more aware of the snow this year, since I have to shovel everything out every time it falls. The good news about getting about 8 inches of snow is that school was canceled for the day. It was nice to sleep in and get some stuff taken care of without having to feel rushed or pressured. A few pictures of the snow and my measurements of it can be seen here.
Sunday, February 03, 2008
A Sign That I Need More Sleep
I guess I need more sleep, because I had to fight laughing in Sunday School today after I heard the first part of this little exchange.
Teacher: "Potiphar's wife was very beautiful."
Person in class: "She also carried a lot of weight" [at which point I started laughing] "being the wife of a high ranking official."
So, nothing funny about it; the comment makes perfect sense. But I clearly did not hear it correctly.
Teacher: "Potiphar's wife was very beautiful."
Person in class: "She also carried a lot of weight" [at which point I started laughing] "being the wife of a high ranking official."
So, nothing funny about it; the comment makes perfect sense. But I clearly did not hear it correctly.
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