Noon -- The SPC has issued 2 PDS (Particularly Dangerous Situation) Tornado Watches from the central parts of Kansas and Nebraska. You can find current watch information at the SPC Current Watch Page. At this point, not much is happening in the watch area. There appears to be a line of strong storms forming SE of Dodge City, but they are small in nature and not moving very much. Based on radar imagery, there also appears to be some sort of boundary about halfway between Topeka and Manhattan. It is probably an outflow boundary from earlier convection. At this point, Topeka still has overcast skies with a temperature of 81. With a dewpoint of 68, though, that is enough energy for storms to feed on. The question is whether the air in place right now is unstable enough for an outbreak to occur. Whether (and when) the clouds clear out will be an important factor in what this evening's weather will be in NE Kansas.
The latest SPC Convective Outlook has just come out. It looks very much like the previous one. The High Risk area has shrunk some and now is mostly in Central Kansas up through Eastern Nebraska and NW Iowa. Topeka appears to be right on the edge of the High area. The discussion from the team of forecasters that looked at this event still indicates that they expect significant severe weather, including the potential for strong, long-track tornadoes.
The threat is still several hours away for this part of the state, but it will be wise to stay tuned to local media outlets this afternoon and evening.
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