Monday, November 06, 2006

Commentary: Election Tomorrow

The election is tomorrow. Go out and vote! If you're not sure which candidates to vote for, check out your local paper, which should have published a voter guide yesterday. There's probably version of it also at your local paper's website.
With the election tomorrow, I realized that it was time for me to betray my obvious political bias (just like a certain local Topeka paper that will remain nameless) and comment on each of the state-wide races, including my endorsement for each position.

Governor
Incumbent: Kathleen Sebelius (D). Challenger: Jim Barnett (R).
Analysis: Sebelius, with a campaign bank account that could go a ways to alleviating the national debt, has outspent Barnett about 10 to 1. In her previous four years in office, in my opinion, Sebelius has done very little except appoint liberal, activist judges and show up at photo opportunities. Notably, she sat by while the state's Supreme Court violated the state Constitution and ordered the Legislature to come up with a half billion dollar education funding increase that the state couldn't afford. After the Legislature (at metaphorical gunpoint from the court), passed a spending package sure to bankrupt the state, Sebelius, who had nothing to do with it, promptly stepped in to take credit for it.
Endorsement: Jim Barnett. His proposals, while modest, at least show some awareness of the situation and a willingness to fix the financial crisis in which Kansas will find itself in the next two or three years. Barnett is an intelligent man, more mainstream than the left-leaning Sebelius, and a better candidate for governor than we've had in years.
Prediction: Sadly, money is what wins elections, and Sebelius and her bloated war chest will probably carry the day, unless large numbers of conservative and moderate get out to vote her out of office.

Attorney General
Incumbent: Phill Kline (R). Challenger: Paul Morrison (D)
Analysis: You knew this campaign would be ugly when Morrison switched parties just so he could run for attorney general. Morrison's campaign has showed no integrity, assailing Kline's character at every turn, misrepresenting Kline's views on every issue, and overall just flat out lying about everything. (Unfortunately, Kline has fired back with just as much negativity and dirt. I'm disappointed in that. Still, I'm more disappointed that Morrison's not been taken to task for his own negativity.)
Endorsement: Kline. Between Morrison's switch of parties and his taking of significant amounts of money from abortionist George Tiller (despite Morrison claiming to be anti-abortion), Morrison has not shown the character necessary for attorney general. While Kline has not run a good campaign, he is by far the better choice because of his strong stand against abortion and his effective work in the past four years.
Prediction: Kline by 1%. Morrison gained initial momentum while Kline's campaign was sitting around on its thumbs. By the time Kline made an attempted comeback, he was forced to go negative, which I fear may turn off a lot of uninformed voters. However, I think the conservative vote and a lot of grassroots efforts will just be enough to allow Kline to squeak by.

U.S. House, District 2
Incumbent: Jim Ryun (R). Challenger: Nancy Boyda (D)
Analysis: Two years ago, Boyda's campaign slogan could have been "I'm just like Jim Ryun." That was all she ever said. She had no good ideas--indeed, no ideas at all--and she still managed to challenge Ryun somehow. This time around, her campaign slogan could easily be "I'm not Jim Ryun," and she still has no ideas. She has no specifics about any plan at all, and seems to be campaigning for change, although she won't say what kind of change she would bring.
Endorsement: Ryun. He's a strong, solid leader who listens to Kansans and votes for their views, even standing up to President Bush when necessary. Ryun has been an effective representative for years, and it would be a shame to lose him just because of frustration with Bush's handling of Iraq.
Prediction: Once again, the Democrat candidate is out-spending the Republican (where is all this money coming from, anyway?). This time, however, I think that Ryun will win. It will be closer than last time because of public irritation with Iraq, but enough of the 2nd district realizes that Boyda is bad for Kansas that she will not win.

2 comments:

B. D. Mooneyham said...

Have you heard of the book "Freakonomics" by Steven Levitt? It's got some very interesting little analyses, including a section on how money really is not a reliable indicator of who will win an election.

It's a fairly easy read, in fact I heard that whoever teaches econ at Cair Paravel had the students read parts of it last year.

Mr. Pi Thetahead said...

Mr. Leach (the guy teaches Econ. at CP now) has recommended that book to me before. I'll try to get to it once I'm through the book or two that I'm on right now.
I'd never heard of the analysis that indicated that money is not a good predictor for election results. We'll see how the results come out tonight. Hopefully, money will not be the indicator...